Poll watchers and pundits were excited earlier this week by news that Andrew Yang had enough of a bump in popularity to make it onto the New Hampshire debate stage when Saint Anselm hosts the Feb. 7 Democratic debate.
That’s cool.
But what’s probably cooler for Yang is that earlier this week bookies and oddsmakers determined he’s the only Democrat in the race who could actually beat Donald Trump on Election Day (Yang -145/Trump +125).
Of course, the only way you can take those odds to the bank is if Yang actually becomes the nominee.
That means he must surge ahead of current New Hampshire (and Iowa) frontrunner Bernie Sanders, win the caucuses and the NH Primary, then spread his math-nerd magic across the country by wooing the politically undecided to jump on the Yang-Gang bandwagon, then sweep past all the other candidates in all the other primaries, grab his golden ticket to the big dance and go head-to-head with Trump on Election Day.
That, barring any scandal, drama or October surprises.
I guess it could happen.
Yang’s certainly done the math in his head and knows the odds. In simplest terms, he’s got his work cut out for him.
Meanwhile, those same bookmakers say odds are it’s going to be Sanders for the win in New Hampshire and probably for the Democratic nomination. And I guess that wouldn’t really surprise anyone here. Bernie was a hit in the 2016 NH Primary, and seems to have his own nerdy old-dude magic.
But bookies are also favoring Trump to win by a decent margin in November, even as the impeachment hearing unfolds. Sure, bookies can be wrong and things can change (flashback to election night 2016 when Clinton’s odds tanked faster than a computer full of email dropped off the State Department roof.)
With our first-in-the-nation primary less than two weeks away, this is it — the beginning of whatever’s going to happen next. The unexpected should always be expected.
As fascinating as a Yang vs. Trump 2020 election would be for too many reasons to count, it’s only January. I’ve been around the political block enough times to know that for now anyway, all bets are off.
Carol Robidoux is founder and publisher of Manchesterinklink.com, and has never bet on anything in her life.
