DURHAM, NH – Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are the current favorites in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary, with Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren trailing. However, most voters are still trying to decide whom to support. Among Democratic candidates, primary voters believe Biden is most likeable, has the right experience, and has the best chance to win the general election, while Sanders is seen as the most progressive.
Just over two-thirds of Republican primary voters would vote for Donald Trump if the primary were held today, while one in six would vote for John Kasich and very few would support William Weld.
These ﬁndings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Of 604 randomly selected New Hampshire adults interviewed in English by landline and cell phone between Feb. 18 – 26, 2019. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percent. Included in the sample were 218 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.6 percent) and 240 likely 2020 Democratic Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.3 percent).
Interest in 2020 New Hampshire Presidential Primary
With nearly a year to go until the 2020 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, half of Granite Staters (49 percent) say they are extremely interested in the Primary, 28 percent are very interested, 16 percent are somewhat interested, and 7 percent are not very interested. Interest in the 2020 Primary has declined since August 2018 (60 percent extremely interested) but remains a good deal higher than at the same point in the last three presidential cycles.
Democrats (61 percent) are much more likely than Republicans (45 percent) and Independents (35 percent) to say they are extremely interested. Democrats in 2019 are twice as likely as they were in February 2015 to report being extremely interested in the upcoming Primary.
Several Republicans have tested the waters to see if there is support for a challenge to Trump. When asked to choose between Donald Trump and possible candidates former Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, just over two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters (68 percent) would vote for Trump if the primary election were held today, 17 percent would support Kasich, 3 percent would support Weld, and 12 percent don’t know or are undecided.
Those who attend religious services once or twice a month, conservative talk radio listeners, those who voted for Trump in 2016, self-described conservatives, and those aged 65 and older are more likely than others to say they would vote for Trump if the Republican Primary were held today. Self-identiﬁed Independents, those aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderates are more likely than others to say they would vote for Kasich.
Granite State Poll, Winter 2019 Demographics
|Sex of Respondent||Female||307||51%|
|Age of Respondent||18 to 34||156||27%|
|35 to 49||136||23%|
|50 to 64||172||30%|
|65 and older||115||20%|
|Level of Education||High school or less||175||30%|
|Technical school/Some college||225||38%|
|Region of State||Central / Lakes||107||18%|
|Registered to Vote||Reg. Democrat||139||23%|
|Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.||309||51%|
|Congressional||First Congressional District||311||52%|
|District Second Congressional District||293||48%|