DURHAM, NH – Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is locked in tight match-ups with five potential Republican challengers, according to the latest findings of the WMUR Granite State Poll.
Support for Clinton in the Granite State against potential Republicans has declined significantly since February, the survey says.
The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, surveyed 706 randomly selected New Hampshire adults, interviewed via landline and cellular telephone between April 24 and May 3, 2015.
With the 2016 election more than a year away, very few New Hampshire voters have decided who they will vote support in the November 2016 presidential Election. Only 10 percent of likely voters say they have definitely decided who to support, 18 percent are leaning toward someone, and 73 percent are still trying to decide.
Clinton currently holds a wide lead over her Democratic rivals in the race to be the 2016 nominee of the Democratic Party. In part, this has been because polls showed her leading potential Republican candidates by comfortable margins, even in swing states.
In February, Clinton held comfortable leads over top Republican candidates in the swing state of New Hampshire, but her advantage has dissipated over recent months and she would face significant challenges from all of the top Republican candidates.
Clinton versus Jeb Bush
If the 2016 presidential election was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the leading GOP candidate in New Hampshire, 47 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Bush, 41 percent would vote for Clinton, 3 percent would support someone else, and 9 percent are undecided.
In February, Clinton held a 12 percentage point lead over Bush. Bush’s current 6 percentage point advantage represents an 18 percentage point swing since February.
At this point, members of both parties heavily support their candidate with a significant percentage of independents undecided. Bush currently holds an edge over Clinton among Independents, 39 percent-22 percent. And while Clinton holds a significant 50 percent to 35 percent lead over Bush among women, Bush holds an even larger 61 percent to 31 percent lead among men.
Clinton v. Rand Paul
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul currently is among the leading Republicans vying for the nomination and he also does well against Clinton. If Paul were the Republican nominee, 47 percent of likely voters say they would vote for him, 43 percent would vote for Clinton, 2 percent support someone else, and 7 percent are undecided. In February, Clinton held a 10 percentage point lead over Paul. Independents split between Paul and Clinton – 43 percent favor Paul and 36 percent favor Clinton. Clinton leads among women by 13 percentage points but Paul leads among men by 24 percentage points.
Clinton v. Marco Rubio
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has the highest net favorability ratings among New Hampshire Republican primary voters and also does well against Clinton. If Rubio were the Republican nominee, 47 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Rubio, 42 percent would vote for Clinton, 1 percent support someone else, and 9 percent are undecided. Independents also split between Rubio and Clinton – 33 percent favor Clinton and 31 percent favor Rubio. And while Clinton holds a 13 percentage point lead among women, Rubio has a 25 percentage point advantage among men.
Clinton versus Scott Walker
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is also very popular among Republicans. If Walker were the Republican nominee, 44 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Clinton, 44% would vote for Walker, 3 percent support someone else, and 9 percent are undecided. Independents also split between Walker and Clinton – 36 percent favor Clinton and 28 percent favor Walker. Clinton also has a 20 percentage point advantage over Walker among women while Walker holds a 22 percentage point lead among men.
Clinton versus Ted Cruz
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is a much more divisive candidate and is less popular among Republicans than the other candidates tested. However, even a Cruz candidacy would pose a significant challenge for Clinton in New Hampshire. If Cruz were the Republican nominee, 46 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Clinton, 45 percent would vote for Cruz, 2 percent support someone else, and 7 percent are undecided. Independent voters are split between Clinton and Cruz – 37 percent favor Clinton while 35 percent say they would vote for Cruz. Clinton holds a 17 percentage point lead over Cruz among women while Cruz has a 17 percentage point advantage among men.
The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.7 percent. Included were 293 likely 2016 Republican Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.7), 229 likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters (MSE = +/-6.5), and 627 likely 2016 presidential election voters (MSE = +/- 3.9). Click here for more on the survey.
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