MANCHESTER, NH – Analyzing crime in any large city is a solid annual gauge of how livable a city is, and whether things are getting better or worse. For Manchester, it’s inevitably a good news/bad news situation.
The good news is that the overall crime rate is down, based on preliminary statistics released Feb. 1 by Chief Nick Willard, which will be submitted to the FBI as part of the annual national Uniform Crime Report.
But it is the bad news that keeps him up at night. Despite strides in reducing overall crime – including reduction in seven out of the eight types of Part 1 Crimes tracked, it’s the upward trend in one crime in particular, aggravated assault, that Willard says is going to be his focus for 2017.
“I would love to get back to 2008 numbers,” said Willard, during a presentation of the data during Wednesday’s Police Commission meeting. In addition to police department heads and commissioners, two alderman – Alderman-at-Large Joseph Levasseur and Nick Pappas of Ward 6, attended the meeting.
In 2008, total violent crimes were at 434. In 2016, they were at 729, nearly a 68 percent increase. The spike in violent crime, particularly aggravated assault, can be linked directly to the rise in drug-related activity in the city, Willard said.
[The complete presentation is embedded below the story, or available here].
Aggravated assault, which includes most gun crimes, was up 9 percent, from 397 cases in 2015 to 434 in 2016. By comparison, in 2010 there were 290 aggravated assaults reported, based on the available crime data on the city’s website.
Although Willard spent much of the presentation unpacking what constitutes an “aggravated assault” – everything from a physical act like strangulation during a domestic call, to “shots fired into the air” with no reportable suspect or victim – Willard emphasized that Manchester Police are proud of the 22 percent drop in crime, overall.
Willard credits the positive strides to several areas of focus, including predictive policing, which is guided by crime data and putting officers on the street to prevent crime rather than just respond to it, as well as the addition of more boots on the ground, and targeting known offenders.
Manchester Police predictive policing method has been recognized nationally for its effectiveness. It involves using data to concentrate the number of officers on the streets during designated “peak” crime times in known high-crime zones, which not only allows officers to thwart criminals in the act, but also is proven to be a deterrent.
Case in point, says Willard: The months of October through December are statistically the highest months for robberies. Last year Manchester Police were able to reduce the number of convenience store robberies during that time period by 46 percent by using predictive policing, to determine where those robberies were most likely to happen.
One such alleged robbery suspect was nabbed on Jan. 30 as he prepared to enter Crosstown Variety, noted Willard, thanks in large part to predictive policing.
Targeting known offenders also contributed to the 29 percent drop in theft from automobiles in 2016.
“For instance, we had an individual who was breaking into cars all around the city, getting arrested, and being released by the judge, getting arrested, and released by the judge. We decided the next time he gets released from Valley Street jail, we’re going to surveil him, and that’s what we did. We surveiled him to his house and, what, in an hour, he’s breaking into a car in front of the Red Arrow,” says Willard.
In that case, Willard had to go personally to the judge and make the case for not releasing the person again, based on their detective leg work.
“So by doing that, and getting the kid off the street – and several other kids who are just like this – we were able to see the crime rate dip dramatically,” Willard says.
Willard also noted that outcomes for the Special Enforcement Division – one of six divisions within the department focused on drug investigations – tracked a dramatic and deadly shift in the street drug of choice in Manchester, from heroin to fentanyl. In 2015, SED seized 268 grams of fentanyl and 28,676 grams of heroin. In 2016, 6,795 grams of fentanyl was seized, and only 5,471 grams of heroin.
Increased gang activity related to drugs and guns also accounts for a large percentage of the violent crime statistics, said Willard. Manchester Police worked closely with New York City police detectives in 2016 to unravel drug-related gang activity that was responsible for a chunk of the 434 aggravated assault incidents reported in 2016.
Willard also stressed that the 2016 numbers being submitted to the FBI are still considered preliminary, and the final national averages have not yet been released.
However, compared with the most recent national statistics available, Manchester’s 2016 total crime rate is still low. Although it’s not precisely apples to apples, violent crime nationally was up 3.9 percent as of Sept. 2016, while Manchester’s overall violent crime was up in 2016 by only 2 percent.
As for non-violent or property crime rates, Manchester’s average non-violent crime was down markedly, about 28 percent on average compared to the U.S. rates, which were only down between 2-3 percent.
In Manchester, burglary was down 32 percent; larceny was down 24 percent, auto theft was down 29 percent; and arson was flat at 29 percent year over year.
Chief Willard welcomes public comment or questions on the city’s crime statistics. He can be reached at ewillard@manchesternh.gov. Questions can also be relayed to Willard through your ward alderman.
