MANCHESTER, NH – Superdelegates are almost as confounding as Tuesday’s NH Primary outcome. And if you don’t know about superdelegates, now would be a good time to brush up.
Why? Because despite a resounding win in New Hampshire by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton has more delegates, and therefore, “wins” on a technicality. Some stories circulating, post-primary, call into question whether Sanders will get a fair chance at the nomination because of the delegate process, and the potential wildcard antics of the so-called superdelegates. This CNN article quotes a Clinton advisor referring to superdelegates as Clinton’s only true “firewall.”
Don’t panic, says UNH political science professor and Director of the UNH Survey Center, Andrew Smith. The last time superdelegates were discussed was in 2008, when a close race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama meant neither had secured a simple majority of delegates to win the Democratic party’s nomination.
But not wanting to propel the party into disarray, the delegates sorted things out without any fistfights or power plays.
So, what are superdelegates?
According to Smith, a superdelegate is part of the election system that very much favors the party “establishment” on both sides. Although Democrats have a far more confusing system in place, both the Republican and Democratic parties reserve the use of superdelegates to boost a candidate that the party leaders favor over the people’s pick, in simplest terms.
Since they were adopted into practice, superdelegates have never been critical in a democratic nomination. The party has, so far, never chosen a nominee against the popular vote.
“The reason you’re hearing about this now is that it’s coming out of the Clinton campaign literature sent out in the wake of Tuesday’s loss, a way of reassuring the troops that the ship isn’t sinking, with a message that is, ‘We might have lost in New Hampshire, but it’s delegates that matter, and we have superdelegates, so calm down,’” says Smith.
Superdelegates were created as part of the McGovern/Fraser reforms, after the chaos of the 1968 Chicago Democratic convention, says Smith, where party leaders favored moderate Hubert Humphrey over left-leaning Eugene McCarthy, the people’s pick.
Every elected Democratic member of Congress, House and Senate is a Superdelegate, as are governors and designated “distinguished party leaders.” In addition, the Democratic National Committee names an additional 400+ superdelegates, usually mayors, chairs and vice-chairs of the state party, and other dignitaries, for a total of about 800.
“Superdelegates are about 19 percent of all the delegates at a convention and represent 35 percent of what you need to win. So, New Hampshire’s superdelegates would include people like state party chair Ray Buckley, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Governor Maggie Hassan, and Congresswoman Ann Kuster,” says Smith, all of which currently support Clinton.
“Those superdelegates are designed to be reflective of the party establishment and serve as a ‘partisan counterweight,’ if you will, for keeping the people from doing ‘crazy things’ – like choosing Bernie Sanders in the actual primary, for instance,” says Smith.
So in theory, could the Democratic Party use superdelegates to elevate Clinton as the party’s nominee, regardless of how many primaries Sanders wins?
“It is possible,” says Smith. “This was a scenario discussed in 2008 with Obama, because it looked like Hillary had enough superdelegates in 2008 to get the nomination. But what happened in 2008 is that African-American delegates and those from states with significant African-American populations, instead of supporting Clinton as they did early on in the primary process, went with Obama.”
However, before the superdelegates engage their super powers, there is a political reality to be reckoned with, Smith says.
The last thing the party leaders would want during the national convention is an obvious lack of unity going into the general election.
“If superdelegates all go for Clinton while the majority of voters go for Sanders, it would open up a civil war within the party. There’d be screaming and riots and demonstrations on the convention room floor. It would be a nightmare for the party leaders, a real mess,” says Smith.
“Should we get down to the election, and it looks like Sanders is winning popular delegates, I would not be shocked that some superdelegates from New Hampshire will throw their support to Sanders, because that is what the Democratic voters of the state wanted,” Smith says.
Although it’s anyone’s guess what will happen from here on, this was a primary for the books, and its significance for the 2016 general election could be far-reaching. Smith is already seeing national polls where Sanders is tied with Clinton.
“Sanders got the biggest win in modern primary history,” says Smith, “and you can’t explain that away with geography.”
“Bernie Sanders will be a different candidate after New Hampshire – not that he’s going to behave differently, but now he’s a winner, and Clinton is a loser; a 22 point loss is huge,” Smith says.
“There’s definitely something going on in the Democratic electorate that favors Bernie Sanders over Clinton. People in other states will say, ‘wow, let me take a look at this guy,’ and the other thing they will be looking to figure out is what went so horribly wrong in the Clinton campaign.”
“That’s another potential historic angle Smith says – the exit polls were showing Clinton and Sanders tied among registered democrats, but Sanders won huge among undeclared voters. If that’s the case, it’s the first time a candidate did not win a plurality of their party’s votes.
“We’ll have to wait for the officials numbers from the Secretary of State, but that would also be telling,” he says.
⇒Petition circulating at MoveOn.org asking NH’s 6 Superdelegates currently supporting Hillary Clinton to change their minds
Trump’s win in New Hampshire will also likely continue to give the GOP outsider momentum.
“Trump has tapped into anger and aggravation. Yes, he’s leading in polls and he won New Hampshire, but he’s also the one candidate GOP voters said they wouldn’t vote for, which means it’s a divided electorate,” says Smith.
If the GOP establishment is able to settle on one candidate – and it could just as easily be Kasich, Bush, Cruz or Rubio at this point – the moderate candidate will be in a better position in primaries that follow New Hampshire, says Smith.
“The problem the GOP faces is that the longer this goes on, with several candidates, the more likely it is that Trump or Cruz will get the nomination,” Smith says. “Certainly, the field has got to be reduced before Super Tuesday.”
Whatever is happening, it’s happening across the board. Voters appear to be sending a singular message: Honesty counts.
“It seems like what Trump supporters like about him is that he is ‘telling it like it is,’ and that he’s honest, or at least that’s the perception. Same is true for Bernie Sanders; he’s speaking the truth,” Smith says. “People seem to be saying they don’t care what kind of politician you are, as long as you’re someone who’s telling me the truth.”
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